Monday, April 4, 2011

ECB Monetary Policy: One Size Doesn't Fit All -

ECB Monetary Policy: One Size Doesn't Fit All

Pimco's Mohamed El-Erian Talks Ireland Crisis and Investment Strategy

YouTube - Pimco's Mohamed El-Erian Talks Ireland Crisis and Investment Strategy

Sunday, April 3, 2011

EU Policy Modeling

Beyond the EU Policy Makers' Dream

12 Unlikely Scenarios That Are Not So Unlikely

By Grant de Graf
  1. Israel achieves 2-state solution
  2. Obama forced to resign because of "Birther" issue
  3. Donald Trump becomes President
  4. Al Qaida gains official political foothold and voice in the Middle East [may already exist, through Hamas]
  5. Another major tsunami or earthquake
  6. Egyptian-Israeli peace treaty collapses
  7. Revolution in Iran
  8. EU break-up
  9. French President Nicholas Sarkozy or German Chancellor Angela Merkel, or both, ousted
  10. Japan's economy experiences post-earthquake boom
  11. A Middle East country threatens nuclear attack
  12. Conservative Party in the U.K. falls, new government comes to power

The Cheapest Way To Hedge Against The World Totally Going To Crap

The Cheapest Way To Hedge Against The World Totally Going To Crap

CHART OF THE DAY: The Scariest Jobs Chart Ever

CHART OF THE DAY: The Scariest Jobs Chart Ever

16 Charts That Don't Show Any Booming Demand

16 Charts That Don't Show Any Booming Demand

Thursday, March 31, 2011

Portugal Schedules Vote as Crisis Deepens

Portugal Schedules Vote as Crisis Deepens

Irish Banks Move Toward Nationalization

Irish Banks Move Toward Nationalization 

Economist McWilliams Says Ireland Is Microcosm of Spain

YouTube - Economist McWilliams Says Ireland Is Microcosm of Spain

The Number One Downside Risk To Tomorrow's Unemployment Number

The Number One Downside Risk To Tomorrow's Unemployment Number

Ailing Spanish Bank Begins Nationalization Talks

Ailing Spanish Bank Begins Nationalization Talks

Irish Banks Need $33.9 Billion

Irish Banks Need $33.9 Billion

Irish banks' 25 bln euro hole?

Portugal Fails to Meet Deficit Goal

Portugal Fails to Meet Deficit Goal

U.K. Economy Shows Life But Clouds Linger

U.K. Economy Shows Life But Clouds Linger

Collapse of Portuguese Bonds Cause for Celebration

By Grant de Graf

The Portuguese 2-year bond has hit 8.6%.

The country should be celebrating and praying that the yield will continue on its current trajectory path. That way when political issues are resolved, a plan to consolidate debt with favorable terms is established, the country ditches the Euro and reverts to a a domestic currency, a proposal for government stimulatory measures combined with some smart austerity is imposed, Portugal can buyback its debt at hugely discounted values.

The profit on this will be enormous. In fact, according to my calculations, if Portugal had only issued additional bonds a year ago, at the then lower market yield, the country may have been able to wipe out its deficit, simply by buying back the debt, at the hugely discounted values.

Emerging Market Quantitative Tightening

Emerging Market Quantitative Tightening

Housing Quality, Real Median Housing Values

Housing Quality, Real Median Housing Values

European Inflation Blows Past Estimates For March, As Trichet Waits In The Wings

European Inflation Blows Past Estimates For March, As Trichet Waits In The Wings

Euro Strengthens as Inflation Accelerates; Aussie Dollar Gains

Euro Strengthens as Inflation Accelerates; Aussie Dollar Gains

Japan Sold 692.5 Billion Yen in March, Ministry of Finance Says

Japan Sold 692.5 Billion Yen in March, Ministry of Finance Says